diagnose-underperformer

Goal

Pull the right report, walk a structured decision tree, and hand the user a ranked list of likely causes with the specific next op to call to fix it. No writes — diagnosis only.

Inputs to confirm (batch)

1. Account name (substring) — required.
2. Target — campaign / ad set / ad name or ID — required.
3. Date range — default last 14 days; if the entity is < 14 days old, use its lifetime.
4. Comparison window (optional) — previous 14 days, for trend.
5. Primary KPI — conversions / ROAS / CPA / CPL — required if the entity has a conversion goal.

Workflow

1. Discover ops. For Google Ads: gads_select_accounts, gads_list_report_fields, gads_get_report, gads_get_account_history. For Meta: meta_ads_select_accounts, meta_ads_list_report_fields, meta_ads_get_report, meta_ads_get_account_history, meta_ads_get_adset_settings, meta_ads_get_campaign_settings.
2. Inspect with get_operation_inputs. Always call *_list_report_fields before *_get_report — never guess metric/dimension names.
3. Resolve account with substring match.
4. Pull the report at the right granularity (campaign / ad set / ad). Required metrics:
   • Spend, impressions, clicks, CTR, CPC, conversions, conv rate, CPA / ROAS, frequency (Meta), search impression share + lost-to-budget + lost-to-rank (Google Search).
5. Pull settings/history to check for recent edits that could have triggered the dip:
   • Google: gads_get_account_history filtered to this campaign — look for budget changes, bid strategy switches, status flips, asset changes.
   • Meta: meta_ads_get_campaign_settings / meta_ads_get_adset_settings for current state, meta_ads_get_account_history for recent changes.
6. Walk the decision tree below and rank the matching diagnoses by likelihood + impact.
7. Present: top 3 diagnoses, evidence from data, and the exact next op to call (or the matching slash command). Do not run any write op.

Decision tree

Branch A — Low impressions / low spend (entity not delivering)

Signal	Diagnosis	Next action
Google: search impression share lost to budget > 20%	Budget-capped	Raise daily budget or use /markifact:negative-keyword-sweep to free spend
Google: search impression share lost to rank > 30%	Bid / Quality Score too low	Raise CPC bid (manual) or improve ad relevance (Quality Score components)
Google: campaign status LIMITED (account history)	Eligibility / policy / payment / learning	Inspect gads_get_account_history for the cause; route based on subtype
Meta: ad set status IN_REVIEW or REJECTED	Policy	Check creative against Meta policies; replace creative
Meta: estimated audience size < 500K and CBO is on	Audience too narrow + CBO starved it	Widen audience or move to ABO with fixed budget
Meta: > 4 ad sets in same campaign with CBO	Auction overlap, CBO concentrating spend on one	Consolidate ad sets or split into separate campaigns
Both: budget set but daily spend << budget	Bid too low for the auction OR audience tiny OR creative not eligible	Inspect bid + audience size + creative status

Branch B — Spending normally, low CTR

Signal	Diagnosis	Next action
Meta: frequency > 3.5 + CTR dropping WoW	Creative fatigue	/markifact:rotate-creative
Google: RSA ad strength Poor / Average	Weak asset variety	Add more headline variety, re-create RSA
CTR way below industry baseline (Search < 3%, Meta feed < 0.8%) and frequency low	Wrong audience or weak hook	Tighten targeting; try a new creative angle
Branded search CTR < 5%	Competitor bidding on brand or weak ad copy	Check gads_ads_transparency for competitors; strengthen brand copy / pin brand headline

Branch C — Good CTR, low conversion rate

Signal	Diagnosis	Next action
Bounce rate high in GA4 / time on page short	Landing page mismatch	Send fresh LP variant; consider /markifact:edit-meta-creative to swap URL
Conversion event firing but CVR < 0.5%	LP friction / wrong offer / wrong audience intent	Audit funnel; consider gating with a softer CTA
Conversion not firing at all in last 7 days	Pixel / tag broken	Meta: meta_ads_check_capi_health and meta_ads_get_pixel_stats; Google: check conversion action import from GA4
Mobile CVR << desktop CVR	Mobile LP problem	Fix mobile LP; consider device bid adjustment

Branch D — Good CVR, low overall conversions

Signal	Diagnosis	Next action
Spend capped (see Branch A signals)	Budget-bound winner	Raise budget incrementally (≤ 20%/day on Smart Bidding)
Audience small + saturated (Meta freq > 4)	Audience exhausted	Build lookalike from converters; expand interests
Strong perf only on weekends	Schedule misalignment	Adjust ad schedule / bid by hour

Branch E — Sudden performance drop

Signal	Diagnosis	Next action
Account history shows a bid strategy switch in the last 14 days	Bid strategy reset learning	Either revert or wait 14 days; warn about future switches
Budget cut > 30% recently	Underfunded learning	Restore budget or accept slower learning
Creative replaced recently with major change	Soft learning reset	Wait 7 days before judging
Seasonal / industry-wide	Compare to category trend	Note and move on; not a config issue

Platform-specific rules the model MUST respect

• list_report_fields first. Field names differ per platform; never guess.
• Account-name substring match for select_accounts.
• Frequency is a Meta concept — not directly comparable on Google.
• Search impression share is a Google Search-specific metric; PMax has its own (search-categories report).
• Don't propose changes that need to wait. If the entity is < 7 days old or made a major change in the last 7 days, say "still in learning, don't touch yet."
• Read-only. This command never calls a write op. Recommend the right write command instead.

Output to user

Top diagnoses for <entity>:

1. <Diagnosis> — confidence: high/medium
   Evidence: <numbers>
   Next: run /markifact:<command> OR call <op_id>

2. ...

3. ...

Other observations:
- ...

End with: "Want me to do any of these? I won't make changes without your go-ahead."