codexkit-pmbok8-earned-value

Calculate and interpret Earned Value Management (EVM) metrics per PMBOK 8 Measurement Performance Domain. Compute SPI, CPI, EAC, ETC, TCPI, and generate variance narratives with corrective action reco

SKILL.md

GitHub

Earned Value Management Analyst

When to Use

  • During project execution when tracking schedule and cost performance
  • At monthly or sprint-end status reporting cycles
  • When stakeholders need objective performance data beyond percentage-complete guesses
  • When forecasting final project cost (EAC) using multiple methods

Procedure

Step 1 — Collect Baseline Data

  1. Confirm Budget at Completion (BAC)
  2. Record Planned Value (PV) at the reporting date
  3. Record Earned Value (EV) — value of work actually completed
  4. Record Actual Cost (AC) — money spent to date

Step 2 — Calculate Core Metrics

Metric Formula Interpretation
SV EV − PV < 0 = behind schedule
CV EV − AC < 0 = over budget
SPI EV / PV < 1.0 = behind schedule
CPI EV / AC < 1.0 = over budget

Step 3 — Forecast Completion

Method Formula When to Use
EAC (typical) BAC / CPI Current CPI trend continues
EAC (atypical) AC + (BAC − EV) Variance was one-time
EAC (SPI×CPI) AC + (BAC − EV) / (CPI × SPI) Both schedule and cost pressure
ETC EAC − AC Remaining spend
TCPI (BAC) (BAC − EV) / (BAC − AC) Efficiency needed to hit BAC
TCPI (EAC) (BAC − EV) / (EAC − AC) Efficiency needed to hit new EAC
VAC BAC − EAC Forecast variance at completion

Step 4 — Generate Narrative

  1. Summarize performance in plain language (ahead/behind, over/under)
  2. Apply traffic-light rating: SPI/CPI ≥ 0.95 = 🟢, 0.8–0.94 = 🟡, < 0.8 = 🔴
  3. Recommend corrective actions for any metric in 🟡 or 🔴 zone
  4. Note trends by comparing with previous period metrics

Inputs

Input Required Format
BAC (total budget) Yes Currency amount
PV (planned value to date) Yes Currency amount
EV (earned value to date) Yes Currency amount
AC (actual cost to date) Yes Currency amount
Prior period SPI/CPI Recommended Decimal (for trend)

Output

## EVM Status Report — [Project Name] — Period [X]

### Performance Summary

| Metric | Value | Status |
|--------|-------|--------|
| BAC | $500,000 | — |
| PV | $200,000 | — |
| EV | $180,000 | — |
| AC | $210,000 | — |
| SV | -$20,000 | 🟡 Behind schedule |
| CV | -$30,000 | 🔴 Over budget |
| SPI | 0.90 | 🟡 |
| CPI | 0.86 | 🔴 |

### Forecast

| Method | EAC | VAC |
|--------|-----|-----|
| Typical (CPI trend) | $581,395 | -$81,395 |
| Atypical (one-time) | $530,000 | -$30,000 |
| SPI×CPI compound | $612,745 | -$112,745 |

### TCPI
- To hit BAC: **1.10** (achievable with corrective action)
- To hit EAC: **0.86** (current pace)

### Corrective Actions
1. CPI 🔴: Review scope for non-essential deliverables to reduce remaining cost
2. SPI 🟡: Fast-track critical path activities in next 2 sprints
3. Escalate to sponsor if CPI does not improve to 0.95 by Period X+2

Definition of Done

  • All 7 EVM metrics calculated correctly
  • At least 2 EAC methods presented
  • Traffic-light status applied to SPI and CPI
  • Corrective actions provided for any metric in 🟡 or 🔴
  • Narrative is in plain language (not just formulas)

Examples

Prompt

My project has BAC = $500,000. As of end of Month 4:
PV = $200,000, EV = $180,000, AC = $210,000.
Last month SPI was 0.93, CPI was 0.89.
Generate a full EVM report with forecasts and corrective actions.

Quality Criteria

  • Data sources and assumptions are explicitly stated
  • Calculations are reproducible from provided inputs
  • Visualizations or tables have clear labels, units, and time ranges
  • Caveats and confidence levels are documented for estimates

Verification (4C)

Check Question
Correctness Are formulas, aggregations, and statistical methods applied correctly?
Completeness Does the analysis cover all requested metrics and time ranges?
Context-fit Are the chosen metrics relevant to the business question being answered?
Consequence If this data were used for a decision today, what blind spots remain?

Edge Cases

  • Missing or incomplete data — Document gaps and their potential impact on conclusions. Provide ranges instead of point estimates.
  • Outliers skewing results — Report with and without outliers. Document the decision to include or exclude.
  • Changing data definitions mid-period — Split analysis at the change boundary and note the schema difference.

Changelog

  • v1.0.0 — Initial release