Competitive Analysis

Overview

Read .forge/prd.md to understand what we're building, then produce .forge/competitive.md — an honest assessment of the competitive landscape with actionable positioning. The output must be brutally honest about where we lose, not just where we win.

When to Use

• .forge/prd.md exists and the product is entering a market with existing players
• User asks "who are the competitors" or "how do we differentiate"
• Preparing for GTM and need positioning statements and objection handling
• Investor pitch requires competitive landscape slide

When NOT to Use

• No PRD exists — run spec-driven-development first (you need to know what you're building to compare)
• The product creates a new category with no direct competitors — focus on adjacent alternatives instead
• User wants a quick opinion, not a structured analysis — just answer the question

Common Rationalizations

Thought	Reality
"We don't have real competitors"	You always have competitors — at minimum, the status quo (spreadsheets, manual process)
"We're better at everything"	No product wins on every axis. If your matrix shows all green, you're lying to yourself
"Pricing research takes too long"	Public pricing pages take 10 minutes. If pricing is hidden, that IS the data point
"Our moat is obvious"	If you can't name it in one sentence, you don't have one
"Win/lose scenarios are speculative"	They're based on feature gaps and buyer priorities — that's analysis, not speculation

Red Flags

• Feature matrix shows you winning every category (cheerleading, not analysis)
• "Lose" scenarios are empty or dismissive ("unlikely")
• Competitor profiles are surface-level (just website taglines)
• Positioning statement is more than one sentence
• No mention of the status quo as a competitor (incumbent inertia)
• Objection responses are generic ("we're better") instead of specific

Core Process

Step 1: Identify competitors

Read .forge/prd.md. List:

• Direct competitors: same problem, same buyer, similar solution
• Indirect competitors: same problem, different approach
• Status quo: what buyers do today without any tool (spreadsheets, manual processes, hiring)

Minimum 3 competitors. Include the status quo as a competitor.

Step 2: Build competitor profiles

For each competitor:

• Company name, founding year, funding/revenue (if public)
• Target customer (their ICP, not yours)
• Core value proposition (one sentence)
• Pricing model and approximate price points
• Key strengths (be honest — what are they genuinely good at?)
• Key weaknesses (specific, not generic)

Step 3: Feature matrix

Build a comparison table. Columns: your product + each competitor. Rows: features from the PRD's requirements list. Values: ✓ (has it), ✗ (doesn't), ~ (partial/planned).

Honesty check: if your product has ✓ in every row, you've cherry-picked the features. Add rows where competitors win.

Step 4: Win/lose scenarios

For each competitor, write:

• We win when: specific buyer profile + situation where we're the better choice
• We lose when: specific buyer profile + situation where they're the better choice
• Switching cost: what a buyer gives up to switch from them to us

Step 5: Positioning statement

One sentence: "For [ICP] who [pain point], [product] is the [category] that [key differentiator], unlike [primary competitor] which [their limitation]."

Step 6: Objection handling

Top 5 objections a buyer raises when comparing to each competitor. For each: the objection, the honest answer, the redirect to our strength.

Step 7: Moat analysis

Answer: what do we have that competitors can't easily copy? Data? Network effects? Regulatory advantage? Integration lock-in? If the answer is "nothing yet" — say so honestly and identify what to build toward.

Output

Write .forge/competitive.md with all sections above. Prepend a forge:meta header (generated_by: competitive-analysis, generated_at: <ISO 8601 UTC with Z>, depends_on: [.forge/prd.md] — paths only, never hashes, generated_from: {.forge/prd.md: <upstream content_hash AT generation time>}, content_hash: <sha256 first 8 of THIS file's body>). See forge-dependency-graph.

After writing: "Competitive analysis written to .forge/competitive.md. Run /gtm to build the go-to-market strategy."

Verification

• .forge/prd.md read before starting
• At least 3 competitors profiled (including status quo)
• Feature matrix includes rows where competitors win
• Win/lose scenarios are honest — lose scenarios are real, not dismissive
• Positioning statement is one sentence
• Objection responses are specific to each competitor
• Moat analysis is honest (says "none yet" if true)
• .forge/competitive.md written